Economics

The Gas Price Mirage

The pundit consensus that gas prices will decide the midterms rests on a snapshot treated as a constant, ignoring history, geography, inflation, and every tool available to the actors involved.

Gas prices are up. This is true, visible, and felt at the pump by every American who drives. Since the onset of the Iran war on February 28, the national average has risen by roughly 35 cents per gallon. Crude oil, whether measured by WTI or Brent, has spiked well above its pre-war baseline. The political commentary has followed the price upward with a simple thesis: high gas prices are bad for the president’s party, and this will hurt Republicans in November.

The Mythical Fiscal Cliff

Every drive to work, every drive home, every news clip, every pundit seems to have something to say about the so-called “Fiscal Cliff”. Each side claims the other is holding “the middle-class tax cuts hostage”, or that the other side’s plan is laughable or unworthy. Sadly, while there isn’t really a cliff, both sides are right about each other. Here is why. They are both wrong.

There Is No New Economy

Just thought I’d share that with those of you buying into the oft-repeated lie. When someone talks of it, ask them how it is fundamentally different from the “old economy”. New technology doesn’t make a new economy. Advances in how a business operates or interacts with purchasers do not change the economy - they improve or detract from that specific aspect.

Why Savings Matter

In a recent post I made the assertion savings are important. I’d like to expand on that a bit. We all think we understand it, but I posit we don’t fully grasp it.

Why Recessions (And Depressions) Are Important

Forest fires suck. Once upon a time, we thought if we protected our forests from forest fires the forests, and we, would be better off. It took a long time, but eventually it became clear this was a bad policy. So we have, slowly, begun to realize it is better to focus on being able to recover from a fire, and able to minimize property and personal damage from fires than to take the naive and reckless position of preventing them in the first place.