The Gas Price Mirage
The pundit consensus that gas prices will decide the midterms rests on a snapshot treated as a constant, ignoring history, geography, inflation, and every tool available to the actors involved.
Gas prices are up. This is true, visible, and felt at the pump by every American who drives. Since the onset of the Iran war on February 28, the national average has risen by roughly 35 cents per gallon. Crude oil, whether measured by WTI or Brent, has spiked well above its pre-war baseline. The political commentary has followed the price upward with a simple thesis: high gas prices are bad for the president’s party, and this will hurt Republicans in November.