The Gas Price Mirage
The pundit consensus that gas prices will decide the midterms rests on a snapshot treated as a constant, ignoring history, geography, inflation, and every tool available to the actors involved.
Understanding Polls and Economics of the Iran War
Five posts taking apart the conventional wisdom about the Iran war’s effect on the 2026 midterms. Each one picks a piece of pundit consensus — gas prices doom Republicans, war polls measure war support, approval ratings predict elections, voters punish the party in power — and walks through why the data refuses to cooperate.
The Bilateral Disgust Contest
Every midterm model assumes low presidential approval benefits the opposition. What happens when the opposition is even less popular than the president?
The Number That Predicts Nothing
Presidential approval ratings are the most-reported metric in political commentary. Their connection to political outcomes is among the weakest.
What War Polls Actually Measure
The Iran War polling consensus is built on questions nobody asked, answered by people who mostly don't care, averaged into a number that describes nothing real.
The Oil Price Nobody's Talking About
America's crude is now the most valuable on earth. The political press hasn't noticed.