Understanding Polls and Economics of the Iran War on The Real Ramblings

The Gas Price Mirage

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 00:00:00 -0500

Gas prices are up. This is true, visible, and felt at the pump by every American who drives. Since the onset of the Iran war on February 28, the national average has risen by roughly 35 cents per gallon. Crude oil, whether measured by WTI or Brent, has spiked well above its pre-war baseline. The political commentary has followed the price upward with a simple thesis: high gas prices are bad for the president’s party, and this will hurt Republicans in November.

The Bilateral Disgust Contest

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 -0500

The standard midterm narrative runs like this: the president is unpopular, therefore his party will lose seats, therefore the opposition will gain them. The first two steps have modest historical support, as discussed in the previous article in this series. The third step is treated as automatic, a simple consequence of the first two. If voters are unhappy with the party in power, they vote for the other party.

The Number That Predicts Nothing

Sun, 12 Apr 2026 00:00:00 -0500

At some point today, a cable news chyron will display a number. It will be the president’s approval rating, updated to the decimal point, presented as though it were a vital sign on a hospital monitor. A pundit will interpret it. A headline will frame it. A donor will adjust a contribution based on it. And none of them will pause to ask whether the number they are reacting to has any meaningful connection to the political outcome they care about. For most of the uses to which approval ratings are put, it does not.

What War Polls Actually Measure

Sat, 11 Apr 2026 00:00:00 -0500

Every major news outlet has now reported some version of the same claim: the Iran War is unpopular. Nate Silver’s polling average tracks it daily, at roughly 40 percent support and 54 percent oppose, updated with decimal-point precision and rendered as a smooth curve. Pew, Quinnipiac, AP-NORC, Fox News, Reuters-Ipsos, and a dozen other outfits have produced their own numbers. The specifics vary. The conclusion is unanimous.

The Oil Price Nobody's Talking About

Mon, 06 Apr 2026 00:00:00 -0500

On April 3, 2026, something happened in the oil markets that has occurred only a handful of times in modern history. West Texas Intermediate crude — the benchmark for North American oil — closed above Brent crude, the global benchmark. WTI at $111.54 per barrel, Brent at $109.24.